Research & Insights

Following Trump’s victory, we assess the supply and demand picture for US debt, and what it means for yields going forward. To do so, it is important to look at the total debt in the economy—not just government debt.

At the recent Yahoo Finance Invest conference, Co-CIO Karen Karniol-Tambour shared her thoughts on what’s next for growth and inflation, Fed policy, the impact of Trump’s policy agenda, and how we’re processing the flow-through to markets. See Important Disclosures and Other Information.  

Where is AI today, and where is it going in the near future? In this video presentation, Bridgewater’s AIA Labs Chief Scientist Jas Sekhon provides a framework that can help answer those questions and resolve a key paradox that currently exists in the AI landscape.

The biggest drivers of market outcomes today are the limits policy makers face and how they choose to navigate them. Our CIOs describe this dynamic and how it creates opportunities for investors.

Karen joins the Goldman Sachs Exchanges: Great Investors podcast to discuss the US economy, what’s next for the Fed, how AI could impact productivity and equities, and reflections on her journey in the financial industry and her time at Bridgewater.

Head of Client Service and BDO Editor Jim Haskel speaks with Bridgewater founder and CIO mentor Ray Dalio aboard his OceanXplorer ship in Singapore about the five big forces that shape history and markets and how they’re playing out today.

In a moderated conversation, Rohit and Bob discuss how they each approach portfolio resilience at their respective organizations and the potential opportunities they see in markets today.

Some of the largest drivers of US equity outperformance cannot be counted upon going forward. A lot depends on the ability of US tech to deliver and AI to unleash productivity across sectors.

As part of the 30th anniversary of the relationship between Bridgewater and GIC, the entity that is responsible for managing Singapore’s international reserves, our two organizations have led a series of joint research projects to identify and assess the issues we think are most important for investors to grapple with in the years ahead. In this videocast, Head of Client Service and Editor of the BDO Jim Haskel discusses the takeaways of that work with Jeffrey Jaensubhakij, Group Chief Investment Officer of GIC; Liew Tzu Mi, Chief Investment Officer for Fixed Income & Multi Asset and Chair of the Sustainability Committee; and our own co-Chief Investment Officer Greg Jensen.

Co-CIO Greg Jensen explains that the greatest bubbles require a transformational technology and a ripe macro and monetary backdrop. We now have both—so he believes the AI bubble is ahead of us, not behind us.

Ajay Banga, President of the World Bank, sits down with Bridgewater CEO Nir Bar Dea to discuss Africa’s economic trajectory and how it creates challenges and opportunities for global investors.

The demographic boom in the working-age population in sub-Saharan Africa is one of the long-term forces that can shape the world in the coming decades. In this research, we explore this dynamic in depth, its implications for the region’s role in the global economy, and how decisions made by policy makers, investors, and the private sector can forge alternative paths.

The CIO of Australia’s sovereign wealth fund, managing $300 billion AUD, joins us for a conversation on their total portfolio approach and some of the most challenging questions facing investors.

Our CIOs discuss why the expansion is likely to stay durable even as it slows, why a sustained expansion with central bank easing isn’t as good for assets as it might seem, and the opportunities they see.

Co-CIO Greg Jensen joins Bloomberg’s “Open Interest” to discuss the opportunities created by the global tightening cycle, the risks related to the US election, and whether there’s an AI bubble.

Co-CIO Karen Karniol-Tambour recently joins Alex Shahidi on the latest episode of his podcast, The Insightful Investor, to share insights into her professional journey, Bridgewater's current market outlook, and how to think about building great portfolios in this environment.

Co-CIO Karen Karniol-Tambour describes how we’re in the midst of a transition from an exceptionally low cost of capital to more moderate levels. But bond yields still need to rise to set a price of capital that is sustainable for the world we’re in, compensating for structurally higher fiscal stimulation and inherently inflationary spending on things like AI investments, remilitarization, rebuilding supply chains to reduce reliance on China, the energy transition, and energy security.

Throughout history, certain companies have dominated the equity market, but co-CIO Bob Prince explores how the process of creative destruction makes staying on top for long periods of time very difficult.

While AI investment isn’t yet a major driver of economic growth, co-CIO Greg Jensen says it looks poised to rise rapidly from here—with the potential to shape the business cycle well before AI is in widespread productive use.

Swings in corporate spending are a material reinforcing mechanism to growth on both the upside and the downside. Co-CIO Bob Prince explains that as conditions have strengthened and profits have improved, businesses are now increasing plans to spend, particularly across sectors with secular tailwinds.

At the Milken Institute’s 2024 Global Conference, co-CIO Karen Karniol-Tambour shares her thoughts on the macro outlook, touching on where to find geographic diversification, how we’re approaching geopolitical risk, the impact of AI on inflation, and more.

As most major economies are seeing their working age populations stagnate or shrink, sub-Saharan Africa’s is growing rapidly and projected to be larger than China’s in about a decade. If the region can also increase its productivity growth, it will begin to emerge out of poverty and gradually become relevant to global investors.

Bridgewater co-CIO Karen Karniol-Tambour joined a panel conversation at Semafor’s first World Economy Summit to discuss the evolving macroeconomic environment, fiscal policy, the bond market, demand for U.S. assets, and the strength of the U.S. dollar.

In an appearance at the 2024 Sohn Investment Conference, co-CIO Karen Karniol-Tambour shares her perspective on key cause-effect relationships, including what will drive stock/bond correlations going forward, why gold and the dollar have rallied together, and more.

Head of Sustainability Research Daniel Hochman and Senior Researcher Jeremy Ng explore how achieving the world’s ambitious climate goals will require rapidly scaling economically viable technologies, while also innovating, incentivizing, and investing in less mature technologies that are not yet cost-competitive.

Maximizing the benefits of geographic diversification can be highly beneficial for portfolios. But doing so can be difficult because many economies are closely linked to US conditions, making their markets highly correlated to US assets investors already own. Co-CIO Karen Karniol-Tambour explores some of the markets she sees as the most diversifying.

Bridgewater alum, author, and investor Paul Podolsky shares how he’s assessing Russia and its threat to the global order following the death of Alexei Navalny, what it takes for economies to succeed in the modern world, and the implications for investors.

Co-CIO Karen Karniol-Tambour explains that in a tight economy with high levels of fiscal spending and strong balance sheets, there is limited room for a pickup in private sector borrowing without reigniting inflationary pressures.

Macro Team Head Kate Dunbar is joined by shipping researcher J Mintzmyer of Value Investor’s Edge to discuss the recent attacks on commercial ships in the Red Sea and the impact of these attacks on global trade and inflation.

Co-CIO Greg Jensen joins a panel of industry leaders at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, to discuss their views on current conditions and the risks that lie ahead for financial markets over the next 12 months.

The secular investment landscape looks more like decades past than the last 20 years, while dynamics like AI and climate change will likely shape the world in unprecedented ways. Co-CIO Karen Karniol-Tambour describes this new era of investing.

What happens when cognitive tasks can be done at zero marginal costs? Co-CIO Greg Jensen explores some of the potential impacts that advancements of AI/ML technology could have on companies and the economy, including an extreme scenario that could potentially produce “explosive growth.”

The forces that have cushioned the impact of the tightening so far are unsustainable. As past supports fade and rates stay high, we expect balance sheets to deteriorate and growth to gradually grind down. Co-CIO Greg Jensen explains how we expect this dynamic to be the dominant driver of economies and markets over the next 12-18 months.

In an excerpt from our Q3 CIO call, Greg discusses where we are in the cycle and the implications for investors.

The impacts of AI on the economy will depend both on how the technology evolves and how quickly and effectively it is implemented. Co-CIO Karen Karniol-Tambour shares how we are interpreting the growing literature on the topic and tracking the process in real time.

Bridgewater co-CIO Karen Karniol-Tambour joins “Bloomberg Wealth with David Rubenstein” for a wide-ranging discussion on Bridgewater’s current leadership and culture, her career journey, and our outlook on markets and economies.

Differences in macro conditions and the corresponding policy responses and market action are as large as they have been in 40 years. Co-CIO Bob Prince highlights the importance and potential of geographic diversification for investors.

The publicly traded firms in a handful of emissions-intensive sectors are responsible for about 60% of all global emissions. By allocating capital to climate solutions and carbon improvers in these sectors, investors can make progress toward their net zero goals, even if that leads to higher spot portfolio emissions than if they were to cut these emissions-intensive sectors altogether.